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The recent productivity and survival of the critically endangered kakapo (Strigops habroptilus) is summarised and its population trajectory in a variety of circumstances is modelled by simulation. Simulated kakapo population growth rates decline with decreasing intensity of management, and unmanaged kakapo on Codfish Island increase only slowly and have a significant risk of declining. Kakapo on islands where more than one fruiting species triggers their breeding have much higher growth rates than kakapo on islands where only rimu (Dacrydium cupressinum) triggers their breeding. The models predict that kakapo will reach a predetermined population milestone of 53 females in 2 – 6 years depending on the number of fruiting species that trigger breeding. At this milestone the intensity of conservation management will be reduced. Conservation management will be further reduced at a second predetermined milestone of 150 females in 19 – 37 years.